Melbourne, Victoria

According to the latest population figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Victoria recorded the highest population growth in the nation in the 12 months to March 2019 – an increase of 133,500 residents.  Victoria also had the highest percentage population growth rate during the period at 2.1% followed by Queensland at 1.8%, an increase of 88,100 residents.

Victoria continues to attract high levels of overseas migrations.  ABS statistics show that of the 249,700 overseas migrants to Australia over the last 12 months, over 86,700 (almost 35%) moved to Victoria.  While overseas migration rates continue to edge higher, interstate migration rates to Victoria have eased from recent peaks.  

(Source:  ABS Cat 3101)

In addition to continued strength of population growth, economic fundamentals in the State also remain robust.  For the fifth consecutive quarter Victoria has remained Australia’s best-performing economy.  Victoria maintains top spot for economic growth with economic activity in the March quarter 26.6% above decade average levels.  Retail spending across Victoria was also 16.6% above decade-average levels in the March quarter.  Strong population growth, low unemployment, increased job security and infrastructure building are key supports for retail spending.  The unemployment rate has fallen by 0.2% to 4.7%, and construction work over the past quarter alone exceeded $13.4 billion.

(Source: CBA State of the States Report). 

Leads at Satterley estates have continued to decline from the peak and return to more normal market conditions. Whilst sales volumes have fallen, population growth should underpin improved sales once the presales made prior to the market correction have all washed through. This is expected to take a further 12 – 15 months.

According to the Research4 National Land Survey for the September quarter 2019, lot sales in the Melbourne market increased by 16% on the previous quarter to 638 per month. The median lot price fell by 1.6% to $325,850, indicating that the market is levelling out earlier than previously predicted.

(Source: Research4)